Hysteria: COVID-19 for everybody.

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francois
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Hysteria: COVID-19 for everybody.

Post#16 by francois » 16 Mar 2020, 18:40

@Ed:
typo error, not maker but makes
Prendre son temps, profiter de celui qui passe.

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Post#17 by Ed_P » 16 Mar 2020, 22:24

:D I suspected as much. Why didn't you just edit it? B)

So things are getting crazier here. A school where some of the grandkids attend had an infected person, then another school near by had one also so all schools in the area are now closed. The county has declared a state of emergency so restaurants, bars and other places of gathering are closed also.

I am absolutely amazed at how far this thing has spread. :shock:

And in addition to people stocking up on essentials some are buying all they can get and selling it on Amazon for outlandish prices and what's more shocking, people are buying it. :mega_shok: Absolutely amazing what's going on, here and around the world.
Ed

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Post#18 by tejasshetty.1808 » 17 Mar 2020, 15:07

In india it seems like it just on the way to become as worse as italy

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Post#19 by Rava » 17 Mar 2020, 15:31

tejasshetty.1808 wrote:
17 Mar 2020, 15:07
In india it seems like it just on the way to become as worse as italy
Some Italian scientists try to blame Germany for the Italian outbreak. Especially one German based company that produces car-parts. But the company itself says there have been no visits from employees in the named time frame at all (Mid Jan to start of Feb)

And some countries claim that the officially given rate of German deaths due to Corona cannot be true since they are - seen by infected and dead - are way less than the average 1%.

So, madness and blaming others all around.
Ed_P wrote:
16 Mar 2020, 22:24
And in addition to people stocking up on essentials some are buying all they can get and selling it on Amazon for outlandish prices and what's more shocking, people are buying it. :mega_shok: Absolutely amazing what's going on, here and around the world.
Indeed, in a crisis often the worst and the best in humans comes to light.

Here in Germany there are local groups forming to volunteer, e.g. buying food for elderly so that the most affected by Corona not need to expose themselves more than needed to larger crowds.

So, I am sure when you look closely you also would find good behaviour in this crisis in your local area, not only madness and greed. :)

________________________________

Anyhow, what is with the Flatten the curve?
Maybe you already know, so I only explain it when the need is there. Please reply here and ask me doing so if you need the info.
________________________________

Another fact I found by listening to a podcast of a Berlin Charité professor and virologist. He talked about the study they made about how long Corona virus can survive on surfaces e.g. on door handles of metal and plastic.

He criticized the study saying it not specifies how large the liquid was they applied; E.g. when they applied a large amount it could take days to dry out.

Also he said they not specified the amount of virus particles still infectious, e.g. when it starts with one million particles and after 2 days, there are a mere 10 left, then technically, after 2 days the area is still infectious, but you can hardly get an infection when there are only 10 viruses left, since when you touch the area, only parts of the 10 are transported to your skin, and the way our skin works, some virus are killed right away when they meet our skin, so, in the end only one or 2 viruses out of 10 would survive, and these are not enough to infect any of us.

So, that was a good 10 minutes spend listening to that podcast. (It is only available in German, and I only listened to the beginning part where he explained the flaws in that study)
And of course all media outlets who reported on that matter have not been critical towards the study at all, going more along the way that "bad news sells better" than "good science is better in a crisis".
Cheers!
Yours Rava

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Post#20 by Ed_P » 17 Mar 2020, 17:20

Rava wrote:
17 Mar 2020, 15:31
so, in the end only one or 2 viruses out of 10 would survive, and these are not enough to infect any of us.
I don't agree. If one gets into us it will multiple and we will become ill.
Ed

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Post#21 by Rava » 17 Mar 2020, 18:04

Ed_P wrote:
17 Mar 2020, 17:20
Rava wrote:
17 Mar 2020, 15:31
so, in the end only one or 2 viruses out of 10 would survive, and these are not enough to infect any of us.
I don't agree. If one gets into us it will multiple and we will become ill.
This is not how infections usually work. [1] Do you have a medical background to disagree?

___________
[1] There are exceptions where the antigen is extremely infectious and extremely lethal, but Corona CoVid19 is not one of those.
Cheers!
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Post#22 by Ed_P » 17 Mar 2020, 20:32

Rava wrote:
17 Mar 2020, 18:04
Do you have a medical background to disagree?
No. :lol: Just seen a lot and read a lot. :happy62: Do you? :%)
Ed

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Post#23 by Rava » 17 Mar 2020, 21:11

Ed_P wrote:
17 Mar 2020, 20:32
No. […] Do you? :%)
Yes indeed. Image
Cheers!
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Post#24 by Ed_P » 17 Mar 2020, 21:33

:shock: Wow!! I'm impressed Rava. :happy62:
Ed

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Post#25 by Rava » 17 Mar 2020, 21:52

Ed_P wrote:
17 Mar 2020, 21:33
:shock: Wow!! I'm impressed Rava. :happy62:
It is hard to get the qualification. The job itself is quite interesting and challenging.

But… the pay is less than adequate.

Same with the nurses and also nurse anesthetists. The later are what are missing in most countries right now, and the nurses said so for years, repeatedly. But the stupid [1] politicians never did anything to really improve the situation.

Now with the first real worldwide pandemic since the Spanish Flu of 1918/1919 [2]. It is said to have infected 27% of the then population of 1.8 to.9 billion.

Most virologists presume that the Corona virus will infect between 60 and 70% of all people in all countries. Even when the cases who need intense care are only at 1%, do the maths how many intense care patients that would make.
(That is the reason for all methods currently in place, to flatten the curve; not to reduce the absolute number of infected persons, but to have less steep increase of patients, to spread the newly infected persons over a longer time period. Since a steep increase would easily overwhelm the healthcare systems of all countries.)

With the Corona virus, when the number of infected persons increases and the number of patients who need intense care also increases, the negligence by politicians and lobbyists will cause dozens if not hundreds or thousands of people to die. Image

Yay! for corruption and incompetence in the medical field. It is just humans at risk there. (Cave! Rava used irony in the last 2 sentences! It was effective. LOL.) Nothing to see, just humans suffering due to greed. Please move along and do not start thinking for yourself. (Again, irony) :wall:


__________
[1] Either stupid or corrupt. Most probably both.
[2] Interesting that the last real pandemic was almost exactly 100 years ago. Coincidence?
Cheers!
Yours Rava

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Post#26 by Ed_P » 18 Mar 2020, 00:57

Ed

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Post#27 by Rava » 18 Mar 2020, 07:59

Ed_P wrote:
18 Mar 2020, 00:57
A good article on the infection duration.

study-coronavirus-can-persist-in-air-for-hours-and-on-surfaces-for-days
I am quite sure they refer to the very same study the Charité virologist criticised as mentioned in my post above. Hysteria: COVID-19 for everybody. (Post by Rava #76382)
___________________________________________________________

Since there are some similarities between the Spanish Flu of 1918/19 and the current Corona pandemic, I looked up the info on the Spanish Flu.
Not only the wikipedia article, but also a detailed historical report on what happened then in NZ.

I realized I forgot about the two phases of the Spanish flu pandemic back then. It had two distinct different outbreaks:
The first one was relatively mild as seen by the death toll.
While the second one was much heavier on the death toll, and the 2nd phase is said to be due to a genetic mutation of the virus.

It could happen with Corona as well.

The current chairman of the German Robert Koch Institute - the leading German institute on infectious diseases - said the Corona pandemic can take up to two years.
And in these two years it is highly likely that a mutation in the virus will occur. Two years is enough time for a mutation, hell, even a few weeks would be enough for a mutation to occur.

And such mutation could alter the virus to be less infectious. It could alter the virus into being less lethal.
It could also alter the virus to be much more lethal while remaining as infectious as it is right now.
Cheers!
Yours Rava

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Post#28 by brokenman » 21 Mar 2020, 00:03

Generally a virus mutates into a slightly weaker form. A virus doesn't want to kill it's host. It needs the host to survive. I certainly hope the mutation will be less deadly. In any case there will certainly be a second wave. A virus of this magnitude is unheard of. Brazil is quite relaxed about it. I think the only reason the count is low is because not enough people are being tested. I've closed my businesses and will spend the next two weeks at home. I believe this marks a turning point in history where countries start to prepare for the inevitable: viruses that can cripple the world economy. Is this the biological warfare that we were warned about many years ago?
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Post#29 by francois » 21 Mar 2020, 01:07

Here in Germany there are local groups forming to volunteer, e.g. buying food for elderly so that the most affected by Corona not need to expose themselves more than needed to larger crowds.
Solidarity for elderly is also going out on this side of the Atlantic too.

Restaurant are closing. Half the population is scared and hysteric and people isolate completely themselves at home. Another half seem to be less scary, but are still prudent. Today the weather was warmer with important showers. The sun came out and some families took the opportunity to walk in the park.

Some heroic chef chose to offer for free the food that they had, so that is will not be put to garbage. There restaurant are deserted.

Grocery are opened for short hours and people are in line three feet apart. They wait outside the supermarket where crowds are restricted.

I wondered what was going on for the poor on the street. Here in Montreal, though spring just came in, temperature still occillate between -9 oC and 3 oC. To prevent the spreading of infection, there is no more shelter while eating the popular soup. Most communautary establishment prepare take out meals. Homeless have to eat their food on the street alone in the cold.

@brokenman:
What about ebola virus in Africa?
Prendre son temps, profiter de celui qui passe.

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Post#30 by Ed_P » 21 Mar 2020, 03:57

brokenman please use your two week break to choose a kernel for rc2. It will help the developers to move forward. :)

But I thought you were a teacher, so what about your class?
Ed

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